Will the next president reshape the Supreme Court?

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As the country grapples with recent rulings on abortion, presidential immunity and federal power — and as President Joe Biden pushes Supreme Court reform — former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are careening toward Election Day with what feels like, at least to me, little to say about the future of the court.
Instead, Trump and Harris are focused on issues like immigration and the economy, which can certainly be affected by Supreme Court appointments, but not in the short term.
With one week to go until Election Day 2024, I decided to dig into the numbers and investigate whether the Supreme Court is actually on the back burner during this year’s presidential election — or if I’m just not listening to the right speeches and interviews.
What I discovered by comparing Pew Research Center surveys from the past three elections is that voters overall care as much today about future Supreme Court appointments as they did in 2020 and 2016, but the partisan gap on the issue is growing.
This year, 63% of registered voters say Supreme Court appointments are very important to their vote, compared to 64% in 2020 and 65% in 2016. (In all three surveys, “the economy” was the most popular answer.)
But there’s now nearly a 20-percentage-point gap between the share of Harris supporters who describe Supreme Court appointments as very important (73%) and the share of Trump supporters who say the same (54%).
In 2020, there was only a 5-percentage point gap between Biden supporters (66%) and Trump supporters (61%) on the issue.
In 2016, the gap was 8 percentage points.
What explains this year’s larger partisan gap?
For one thing, conservatives currently hold a comfortable, 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court.
For another, the oldest justices — Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74 — are both conservative and will likely be able to work at least until 2029 in the absence of new health concerns.
In other words, it’s very possible that the next four years will pass without a change to the Supreme Court — but Democratic voters feel more urgency about taking advantage of an unexpected opening.
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In case you’re interested after reading the intro, here are the ages of the current Supreme Court justices:
The top six justices are considered conservative, while the bottom three are liberal.
Justices around age 80 typically face pressure from the political party they’re associated with to proactively retire when that party controls the White House.
That’s what Justice Stephen Breyer, who was then 83, did in 2022, paving the way for Biden to appoint Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg chose not to retire during former President Barack Obama’s eight years in office and then died at age 87 in September 2020. Trump picked her replacement.